willing to pay

 I, like millions of others, don't want a war. But war is what we have. The sad part about that is that war is intrinsic to mankind. There will always be the aggressor and the defender. Yes, somebody has to start it. Depending upon your view, your sentiments, the aggressor will be assigned. Russia is clearly the aggressor here. Russia will attempt to impose its' will upon the people of Ukraine. Nothing about this is new, not really, the same scenario has played out hundreds of times throughout history. Sadly, it will continue as long as there are men on the planet.

 I think we can all agree on that much. So, the United States has taken a side, choosing the side of freedom from aggression. The United States of America has made promises, commitments, and treaties. We promised to support the country of Ukraine. The reasons we have done so could be argued, but that makes little difference in the long run. Those defending a cause, any cause, are always righteous in their indignation and condemnation of the aggressor. That's just how that works. We often think of that as being on the side of history. The prayer is that we are on the "right" side of history. Surely in this instance we are, isn't that the belief? Yes, it is and justifiably so.

 All that being established I'm left with this. The President has stated on numerous occasions that our troops will never enter Ukraine. We will provide support, training, weapons, and troops. Just what the troops are supposed to do hasn't been clearly defined however, just that they will not enter Ukraine. At the same time the President proclaims we will defend Ukraine. My question is a simple one, how can you win a fight if you don't get in the ring? I say that sarcastically because I'm certain our troops will enter Ukraine at some point. I see that as inevitable. Even if it is never "officially" recognized or admitted, it will happen. 

 What of Nato forces? If history is any indication a token presence is to be expected, at best. All those nations will be taking care of their own interests. It bears remembering that Russia is in their backyard! Yes, there are missiles, I know that, but I don't believe Russia is going to launch any missile attacks against the United States. That's a no-win scenario for everyone. They certainly aren't going to launch any land invasion. 

 China is certainly a power to be wary of, and they may align themselves with Russia, temporarily at least. But economics will come into play and China will weigh that loss against potential gains. Think about it? What was the first action taken in defense of Ukraine? Sanctions. Sanctions is just another term for money. The President is still talking about imposing more sanctions. Will money stop bullets? That is what has to be answered.

 I'm quite certain that Russia considered all of this before launching this invasion. Hate them all you want it doesn't change anything. I'm quite certain Russia is prepared for sanctions. Will China help? If there is a profit to be made the simple answer is yes. The answer is always yes if there is a profit to be made. Russia will cease its' invasion if there is a profit in that. That's a simple truth. Ukraine will have to make concessions to Russia. Russia wants access to the Black Sea, that's the bottom line. When that objective is attained, and it will be, a "peace" will be declared. 

 How much are you willing to pay? That is what Russia is asking Ukraine. They have shown that they are willing to pay a huge price to get that access. The Ukrainians are saying we will pay with our lives. And that is the basis of war, all war. The willingness to defend yourself against aggression. You will not stop aggression with cries for peace! Either you defeat the enemy or pay the enemy his price to quit. Is Russia willing to risk it all? Many nations have over the centuries. Many nations met defeat as well. Many nations agreed to pay tribute to other nations to maintain a peace as well. 

 Will the Unites States of America engage the Russians directly? My thinking is that Russia is betting we will not. That is the reason they decided to strike when they did. It isn't like we had no idea, no clue about any of this. We did nothing for a long time before imposing the first "sanction" on Russia. I'd say we aren't sending a very strong message today! Russia is testing our resolve and so far, all they see is that we are dissolving. Russia is prepared to "compromise" once they get what they really want. They don't need it all, not at this time. 

 Well that's my thoughts on all of this. I write this more as a record for history than anything else. One day my great grandchildren or great-great grandchildren may read this assessment and judge it against history. I often think I wish my ancestors had written their thoughts about such things. What did Grandfather Terry think as he entered the civil war? What did my father really think about WW2? Sadly, I never asked him that question. The question really is, how much are you willing to pay?